Us Politics · resolved market
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x510c02fdd2b0844fcadcbd09cbcd6577d9df5315780308186caf1ab349390197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,220$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…e123backed Yes | 12c | 1,563$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…84b5backed Yes | 8c | 1,033$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…e457backed Yes | 15c | 773.73$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 27c | 766$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 73c | 759$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 27c | 749$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 73c | 742$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed No | 73c | 686.08$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 27c | 676$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes | 16c | 659$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 16c | 645$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da2…b7bdbacked Yes | 8c | 593$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 587.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c5…2230backed Yes | 36c | 275.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 254.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 6c | 220.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 6c | 199$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…6271backed Yes | 17c | 160$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 143.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 59c | 139$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be2…2564backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 77c | 95.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 40c | 81.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 31c | 62.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 34c | 62.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 54c | 59.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…c88bbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…3c95backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30?this page
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?No won
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?No won
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.