Us Politics · resolved market
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa0c5ff4963e6e6c0a9fdd2c53a1fa9c4383fab0d268f9f7c981978997aa729
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 72c | 1,420$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.43 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 27c | 1,046$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed Yes | 20c | 1,020$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 28cpaid | +57%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 18c | 1,015$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 33c | 729.36$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 75c | 691.34$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 70c | 685$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 28c | 612.02$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…42d9backed No | 53c | 602.82$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 69c | 601$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 30c | 548$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 76c | 535$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 73c | 518$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 21c | 500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 73c | 494$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 24c | 489$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 12c | 409$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 391.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 77c | 380$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 31c | 376$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 12c | 370$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes | 12c | 360$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 78c | 279$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 22c | 279$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 23c | 229$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 31c | 225$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 23c | 193$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…e27fbacked No | 79c | 175$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…7f90backed Yes | 16c | 154.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 70c | 139$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 26c | 127.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 14c | 123$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc9…98b0backed Yes | 20c | 122.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 16c | 116.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 72c | 104.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 15c | 83.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…866bbacked Yes | 33c | 72.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 30c | 66.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 64.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…962dbacked Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 27c | 52.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 22c | 46.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 75c | 37.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 32c | 36.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…500fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 69c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31?this page
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30?No won
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?No won
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.