TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$138,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$132,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,438 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbb…42d9backed No78c18,769$14,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,188.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes29c12,709$3,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,669.622157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No56c9,852$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,332.065641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3f…1a6fbacked Yes19c7,895$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No79c5,580$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.873663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes44c5,555$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes27c4,880$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.67825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes41c4,873$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.3812630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Yes44c4,444$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes15c3,995$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.5933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1057…9ea5backed No43c3,194$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.351154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes22c3,000$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes27c2,650$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.3619638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ad…5efebacked No79c2,636$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked No67c2,500$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes3c2,320$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.12245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad8c…da76backed No59c2,226$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df7…f332backed Yes26c2,035$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No75c2,011$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.82166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No65c1,958$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.453650%18 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Yes58c1,916$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1111127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb436…bb3cbacked No46c1,833$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.614182.9%34 W · 7 L+10.5wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+42%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes27c1,707$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.423013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes18c1,590$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.7914935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes17c1,445$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed Yes27c1,332$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.444562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5dc4…99adbacked No46c1,311$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No46c1,200$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.794955.1%27 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes2c1,181$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6418725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes28c1,156$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.150%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd44…1837backed Yes3c1,038$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4702157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes21c999.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21018745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes31c930$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.317850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes33c834.35$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.712736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xfd8f…a3b1backed Yes42c834.07$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.31425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…6fa5backed Yes3c800$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.61353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+96.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes31c734.33$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No50c676.65$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.3419348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed Yes30c675$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes31c660.44$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.12339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed4e…ab6bbacked No66c632.56$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No65c624.8$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.733342.4%14 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c600$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.81343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No77c600$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1414727.7%13 W · 34 L-13.0wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-59.9%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes58c597.6$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2760%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No74c591.37$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.722850%14 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked No37c548.31$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed No70c523$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156832.4%22 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked Yes4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9995…d0d3backed No57c495.59$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.582222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No44c471.67$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.082030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes34c443.52$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.256833.8%23 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed Yes3c434$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed No47c403.44$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.823053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202025%5 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes50c400$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20118445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x060a…563bbacked No68c384.78$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed No51c380$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.84845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes30c371.98$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.591546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc59f…59abbacked Yes28c362.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+76.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d3e…534ebacked No44c360$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.78560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c344.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.79765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No45c326.36$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.8731840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f1…23bcbacked No65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No64c302.63$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.63100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b5…60d5backed Yes53c290$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+89.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes21c274$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.52416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes37c253.09$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c250.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.631,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes40c244.91$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.072240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ac…2fc1backed Yes26c241.11$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes46c239.57$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.25238.5%20 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd73b…bf60backed Yes42c238.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes51c238.55$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.493735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No80c221.99$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.41855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fec…3572backed No78c220$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes5c211.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.36616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes58c210.53$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-87.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes20c210$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.052213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes39c209.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3633618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5dbf…3faebacked No51c208.53$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.18742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed No79c208.06$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.252445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5415…2a6ebacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2865…2005backed Yes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick58cpaid-62.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x70f5…e0c7backed No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked Yes30c192.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.58650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e47…a510backed No58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9985…6afabacked No64c170.31$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+54.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes58c165.8$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.164247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes19c161$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes18c160$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0614528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.