Us Politics · resolved market
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ac6ffe44e766c8efe46acd3c1f68aea6217fcdacf9a00032a555559fe428e36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 5c | 3,871$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,820$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 15c | 2,704$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.64 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 3c | 2,060$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,768$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,417$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +10.5wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,103$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…59abbacked Yes | 5c | 1,096$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 9c | 1,044$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,033$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 12c | 909.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…b584backed Yes | 4c | 891.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 864.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 834.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 599.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 585.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 494.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 492.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 4c | 471.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe672…45cebacked Yes | 6c | 420.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 3c | 419.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 410$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…f543backed Yes | 4c | 318.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbf…3faebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…b248backed Yes | 3c | 287.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 280.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 270.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6e…568ebacked Yes | 6c | 251.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 6c | 243.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 13c | 237.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked Yes | 4c | 227$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 75c | 217.32$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 16c | 184.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 22cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9672…4289backed Yes | 12c | 173.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 16c | 140.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad8…5b77backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 119.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…76bebacked Yes | 15c | 119.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 102.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 16c | 100.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…e9bdbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 15c | 87.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…d210backed Yes | 36c | 76.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…85f8backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…99a4backed Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…7bebbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…23c1backed Yes | 40c | 28.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca5c…f5ffbacked Yes | 39c | 26.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked No | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f6…ba8fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 69c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?this page
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30?No won
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?No won
- Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.