Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf03c9a988208be99d2f6903d84935512a4fb5eb158524e7b39cb2f35aedbdd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 3,463$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.73 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 2,477$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.01 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 42c | 2,416$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…dababacked Under | 42c | 1,556$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 52c | 840.46$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 64c | 764.38$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 38c | 506.74$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.18 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Over | 75c | 357.62$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Under | 5c | 317.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 36c | 293.82$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.05 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 65c | 289.2$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 49c | 286.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 35c | 277.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 41c | 271.87$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.52 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 35c | 249.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 38c | 240.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.23 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c0…7a69backed Over | 56c | 209.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 188.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc8…6875backed Under | 56c | 174.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 171.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…0758backed Over | 40c | 170.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 63c | 155.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 40c | 119.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Over | 40c | 106.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa484…67c1backed Over | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 92.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 84.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce2…9787backed Over | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 79.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 66.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 54c | 64.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 77c | 62.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…d539backed Under | 64c | 61.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 60.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 33c | 53.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a5…5b4ebacked Under | 28c | 49.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 36c | 47.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 64c | 45.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 61c | 42.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 40.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 41c | 37.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 37.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Under | 66c | 36.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Over | 52c | 34.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 34.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 69c | 31.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed Under | 62c | 31.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…36ddbacked Under | 42c | 31.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Under | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 65c | 22.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Over | 66c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Over | 76c | 22.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Under | 64c | 19.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.