Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb16b1f9d052deb77ebd5858f675de3558401685276b8460b41d748ed024c883f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb44e…c2c6backed Under | 56c | 4,999$2,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 1c | 2,822$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 2,060$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.61 | 1,426 | 40.8%582 W · 844 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 20c | 1,930$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.02 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 1,504$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.88 | 332 | 44.9%149 W · 183 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 44c | 1,015$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.48 | 270 | 46.3%125 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 469.53$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.97 | 1,933 | 45.3%876 W · 1,057 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 75c | 334.79$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 30c | 321.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 74c | 262.44$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…f2d6backed Under | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 26c | 238.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 465 | 33.3%155 W · 310 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 77c | 197.24$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 19c | 183.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…8027backed Under | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 18c | 132.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 44c | 113.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 77c | 112.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 21c | 104.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Over | 21c | 89.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c0…7a69backed Over | 43c | 79.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 79.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…d0bfbacked Under | 78c | 78.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 25c | 76.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Over | 44c | 73.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Over | 18c | 63.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Under | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 28c | 57.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…d539backed Under | 74c | 56.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 44.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 467 | 50.1%234 W · 233 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 73c | 43.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Over | 37c | 43.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 29c | 42.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 75c | 38.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Over | 51c | 37.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +236.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 167 | 48.5%81 W · 86 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 78c | 24.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 352 | 56.8%200 W · 152 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 41c | 24.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked Under | 49c | 22.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…0144backed Under | 77c | 21.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 75c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Under | 76c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 64cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.