Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fef240174c6873824036647a5834fbb4117f4e60025d8d86ec1ae183f05f338
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toulouse FCof AS Monaco FC, Toulouse FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed AS Monaco FC | 36c | 855.97$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.43 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toulouse FC | 56c | 626.98$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.47 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Toulouse FC | 68c | 581.27$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.29 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed AS Monaco FC | 43c | 370.58$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.35 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked AS Monaco FC | 42c | 340.92$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked AS Monaco FC | 42c | 230.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed AS Monaco FC | 32c | 229.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toulouse FC | 65c | 229.85$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Toulouse FC | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toulouse FC | 59c | 133.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…c93abacked AS Monaco FC | 17c | 110.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Toulouse FC | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Toulouse FC | 68c | 57.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +9.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Toulouse FC | 56c | 44.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)this page
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.