Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d4c4f0d68b3366eca8f9bf90e8462a03af5a70a40a2d9d5f8d19d9dec55642b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 17c | 2,022$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.55 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 15c | 2,000$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.85 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 15c | 1,314$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.66 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 1,232$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 22c | 1,092$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 61c | 804.72$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.84 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 16c | 709.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 39c | 670.16$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.76 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 15c | 612.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 79c | 588.6$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 37c | 525.96$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.61 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 38c | 429.42$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.47 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 41c | 348.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.08 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 333.88$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Over | 63c | 310.41$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 62c | 243.37$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Under | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 43c | 229.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 14c | 213$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…0758backed Over | 62c | 204.9$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 37c | 182.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 78c | 171.29$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 39c | 166.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4349…0b79backed Over | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 38c | 130.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 23c | 128$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Over | 63c | 108.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Under | 43c | 84.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Over | 63c | 82.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa484…67c1backed Over | 61c | 79.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 22c | 78.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Over | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 60c | 74.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Over | 63c | 66.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 59.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Over | 61c | 50.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 24c | 46.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Under | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 40c | 34.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Over | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 71c | 31.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf6…c27dbacked Over | 61c | 29.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…2175backed Over | 62c | 25.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 61c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 61c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 60c | 22.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8b…179dbacked Over | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.