Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5452f5b098954a4e46bd80a7278a1b9140b11ccb5451f5594ee9270945846169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toulouse FCof AS Monaco FC, Toulouse FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked AS Monaco FC | 54c | 2,201$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toulouse FC | 45c | 1,398$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.87 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toulouse FC | 49c | 537.47$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.51 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Toulouse FC | 67c | 216.67$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Toulouse FC | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toulouse FC | 46c | 124.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked AS Monaco FC | 53c | 111.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked AS Monaco FC | 31c | 107.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed AS Monaco FC | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Toulouse FC | 49c | 96.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Toulouse FC | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…c93abacked AS Monaco FC | 33c | 87.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked AS Monaco FC | 32c | 73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed AS Monaco FC | 33c | 65.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toulouse FC | 67c | 54.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Toulouse FC | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed AS Monaco FC | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Toulouse FC | 68c | 33.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Toulouse FC | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.