NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbabb5ba04a13bad7bba9f07a1ef1c4d6d4c09e631acd3a540869549b4c0561d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 8,051$3,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,685.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 48c | 6,957$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360.21 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 55c | 6,395$3,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,866.67 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 68c | 567$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.16 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…4f03backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked Over | 53c | 375.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 55c | 345.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.45 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 244.8$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.61 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…f5d8backed Over | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…0293backed Under | 46c | 189$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 44c | 186.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdc…1669backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 53c | 185$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 182.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…9ea6backed Over | 54c | 175$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 109$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Over | 56c | 108.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb961…b69ebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Over | 53c | 83.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4ca1backed Under | 47c | 74.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 56.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 245 | 66.9%164 W · 81 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…1273backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over | 54c | 37.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Over | 54c | 37.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 49c | 37.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6d…a980backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…49d5backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8d…4a1cbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 53c | 33.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Over | 55c | 32.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…044dbacked Over | 53c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77c…ee8ebacked Over | 55c | 23.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Under | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…74b0backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…6320backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Warriors vs. ThunderThunder won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.