NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b7e255929d43017a8fdf25d3be62be2d329258423bb9cd9d820899b0b1813ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Thunder | 56c | 2,262$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.34 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Warriors | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.99 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 43c | 685.44$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.77 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Warriors | 47c | 593.49$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 57c | 572$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Warriors | 44c | 349.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Warriors | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Thunder | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 240 | 55.4%133 W · 107 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…8f91backed Warriors | 48c | 194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…958cbacked Thunder | 52c | 187$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 44c | 184.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 16c | 171$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc35…2329backed Warriors | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Thunder | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Thunder | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Thunder | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Thunder | 57c | 86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Thunder | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Thunder | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…b4c8backed Thunder | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Warriors | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Thunder | 55c | 55.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Thunder | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Thunder | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…b5b7backed Thunder | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Thunder | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Thunder | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Thunder | 55c | 35.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…8ba4backed Warriors | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Thunder | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…03efbacked Thunder | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…7fe3backed Thunder | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77c…ee8ebacked Thunder | 55c | 23.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Thunder | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Warriors vs. ThunderThunder won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.