NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52424ac29991e3ff1097373741ba1ec1fc779f5011e7dd4cb202173af29f0139
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 2,214$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Under | 56c | 250.14$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Under | 54c | 102.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…e803backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 53c | 88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4ca1backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Under | 68c | 58.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 198 | 61.6%122 W · 76 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 33c | 53.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b1…cd77backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ac…13d8backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…a7a4backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Warriors vs. ThunderThunder won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.