TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,958 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under51c9,677$4,904 inLost-$4,903.631,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Over51c8,000$4,080 inWon+$3,92034645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c2,402$1,175 inLost-$1,174.969,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over50c830$415 inWon+$415.33,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over50c830$415 inWon+$415.32,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Over52c828.47$428 inWon+$400.4723248.7%113 W · 119 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f9…dd4fbacked Over54c800$432 inWon+$3681060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under48c651$313 inLost-$313.282,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over49c486.79$239 inWon+$248.262,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Over50c426$213 inWon+$212.8136148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under49c300$147 inLost-$14772647.7%346 W · 380 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Over50c240.31$120 inWon+$120.1669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under48c222$107 inLost-$106.5622656.6%128 W · 98 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over50c199$100 inWon+$99.56,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over50c145$73 inWon+$72.533950.1%170 W · 169 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526b…a0e9backed Over53c133.02$70 inWon+$62.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Over53c90$48 inWon+$42.340346.2%186 W · 217 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Over52c76.92$40 inWon+$36.926259.7%37 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over46c50$23 inWon+$27.276054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b47…5286backed Under49c41$20 inLost-$20.0910945%49 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Over50c40$20 inWon+$2022556.9%128 W · 97 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9ce…77eabacked Over50c40$20 inWon+$206448.4%31 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Over52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.4635851.7%185 W · 173 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e1…2ee8backed Over50c30$15 inWon+$151650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3895…4025backed Over51c29.41$15 inWon+$14.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf7d…ac4bbacked Over51c19.99$10 inWon+$9.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+36.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.