TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$338,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$340,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,118 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Thunder53c287,059$152,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134,155.1425248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Warriors47c80,000$37,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,40059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Warriors47c72,342$33,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,896.972,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors46c52,070$24,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,168.299,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Warriors48c27,750$13,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,242.3647848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors47c15,750$7,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,378.461,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors47c15,125$7,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,058.045,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Warriors45c9,000$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,05034645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43fd…99a7backed Warriors49c8,163$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.871526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-48.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9201,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors52c7,569$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,920.1374748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Warriors47c2,862$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.2859347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Thunder48c2,705$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.658951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors48c2,373$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.23,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Warriors48c2,208$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.482,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors45c1,950$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.142,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Warriors48c1,891$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.252,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Warriors47c1,489$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.831,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1602…3674backed Thunder50c1,455$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.642466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Warriors47c1,400$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.32,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb00…42e9backed Thunder52c1,347$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.64454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Warriors49c1,200$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58840243.8%176 W · 226 L-1.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Thunder52c1,147$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.5736148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Thunder51c1,050$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.4818140.3%73 W · 108 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Warriors48c1,026$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4942560%15 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e2…9b0cbacked Thunder49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.411838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Thunder50c1,001$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.3812452.4%65 W · 59 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Warriors50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50033447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Thunder51c999.99$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49028448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc5…b639backed Warriors49c999.78$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.895437%20 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Thunder49c965.49$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.2916053.1%85 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2791…2791backed Thunder48c900$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4683560%21 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Warriors52c769.27$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.029652.1%50 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3230…9cfcbacked Thunder48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.911637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x079d…18ffbacked Warriors52c625$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3252025%5 W · 15 L-4.7wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-45%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors45c604$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.266,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3124,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder48c572.5$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.73,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161c…3b03backed Warriors48c508.33$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Warriors51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Thunder48c499.96$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.983732.4%12 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-39.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Warriors51c435.29$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22218452.7%97 W · 87 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder49c435$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.288,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Warriors49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20033743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58d…914abacked Warriors50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013860.1%83 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Warriors50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013748.9%67 W · 70 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf45…c794backed Warriors52c350$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid+11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f3…0d57backed Warriors50c309$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.59348.4%45 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder49c305.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Thunder50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1507447.3%35 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fde…66b2backed Thunder49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1535756.1%32 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5276…74ddbacked Thunder54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.783053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Thunder51c253$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Thunder49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0836143.5%157 W · 204 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Warriors50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005536.4%20 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x261b…b32bbacked Warriors50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010760.7%65 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Thunder52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Thunder51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9826150.2%131 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…ff5bbacked Thunder48c199.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.991560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb51…733cbacked Thunder52c195.83$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9411542.6%49 W · 66 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Warriors50c193$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.582442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa72c…a633backed Warriors52c192.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009953.5%53 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x117c…db06backed Warriors52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018047.2%85 W · 95 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea1…3f8abacked Warriors51c177.43$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Thunder50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8082440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af6…a1a1backed Warriors52c140$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.81421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-58.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Warriors51c130.04$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9947144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e28…3e73backed Warriors50c112$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569158.2%53 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Thunder48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1723652.5%124 W · 112 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Warriors48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021838.1%83 W · 135 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09e3…cf81backed Thunder48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5218955%104 W · 85 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3333…ed90backed Warriors51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512927.6%8 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-37.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9c54…f00ebacked Warriors50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506061.7%37 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Warriors50c99.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8713550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Warriors51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023550.2%118 W · 117 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5bf…a75bbacked Warriors51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501450%7 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f1…f0e8backed Thunder51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.048155.6%45 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06b7…5479backed Thunder52c97.42$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.764050%20 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Warriors48c94.48$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5318053.3%96 W · 84 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2325…3256backed Warriors50c94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Warriors48c88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2435447.7%169 W · 185 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x960c…3705backed Thunder51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x749e…391dbacked Warriors50c75.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.92321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-49.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x60b6…90f4backed Thunder56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Warriors46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.262450%312 W · 312 L-2.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Warriors50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3513652.2%71 W · 65 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4169…512cbacked Warriors44c67.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Warriors52c67.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3536854.1%199 W · 169 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Thunder52c63.46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4660346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8845…0c7dbacked Warriors52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Thunder52c58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.613943.2%60 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Warriors51c57.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cb…9c55backed Warriors52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307746.8%36 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa873…9ed0backed Thunder51c50.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.772766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Thunder58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2135352.4%185 W · 168 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Thunder50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2538845.6%177 W · 211 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Thunder49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.515838.6%61 W · 97 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Thunder52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.085160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Thunder51c44.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8820444.6%91 W · 113 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x357b…7b85backed Thunder52c44.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.232045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.