NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2836153b8d1116334ee4c0d09e6013bf8f4784ca2daf74eb952f49241e63c364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 49c | 1,602$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Over | 51c | 1,570$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.97 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 51c | 1,354$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.42 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Over | 49c | 961.22$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 890.31$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 869.02$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.13 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Under | 52c | 638.46$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.46 | 548 | 53.8%295 W · 253 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…6930backed Over | 48c | 599.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.99 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…4362backed Over | 49c | 590$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.1 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…d5b3backed Under | 51c | 590$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 567.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.32 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 534.04$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.68 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35a8…feb4backed Under | 54c | 410$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 48c | 318.46$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.03 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 47c | 159.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…d35ebacked Over | 49c | 109$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…c80cbacked Under | 52c | 108$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…f005backed Under | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…1721backed Over | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825a…9f6fbacked Over | 49c | 104$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…df0fbacked Under | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…4279backed Over | 49c | 104$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…a69abacked Under | 52c | 101$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…741ebacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…1259backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…ecccbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe268…0573backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…1a90backed Under | 52c | 99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…0f28backed Over | 49c | 96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…6494backed Under | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e95…5b00backed Over | 49c | 96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…975cbacked Under | 52c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd954…4185backed Under | 52c | 92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…9f66backed Over | 49c | 91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…f969backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…cc28backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Under | 51c | 33.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Warriors vs. ThunderThunder won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.