TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Warriors, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,486,544
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,479,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,486,544 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 789 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3987…259ebacked Warriors27c303,362$80,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,633.818022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors23c98,405$22,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,564.292,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Thunder74c70,000$51,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,20017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Warriors21c61,917$13,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,257.6525925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Thunder75c56,870$42,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,393.114856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca5a…7e43backed Warriors10c50,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors27c44,145$12,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,044.9474748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder76c43,355$32,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,578.15,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Warriors19c40,000$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,60038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Thunder74c38,500$28,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0102867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Thunder75c36,693$27,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,343.0837557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97a…30b7backed Warriors0c34,065$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Warriors27c33,200$8,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,86420253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder73c31,122$22,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,447.129,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Thunder73c30,000$21,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,10051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Thunder73c29,007$21,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,848.2447144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Warriors26c26,384$6,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,9869838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Warriors27c25,000$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7507149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968b…e907backed Thunder75c25,000$18,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2501855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Thunder73c25,000$18,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7505850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder73c24,690$18,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,615.6569852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Thunder74c24,422$17,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,459.8772450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Thunder72c24,020$17,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,622.62,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Warriors4c20,004$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.1614434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Warriors13c20,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Warriors3c19,969$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.521,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bd6…918ebacked Warriors0c19,696$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316811.8%8 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Thunder73c19,500$14,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,328.8644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Warriors28c18,636$5,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,214.9836148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Warriors26c18,318$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,750.2396447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1602…3674backed Thunder73c15,515$11,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,189.012466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Thunder74c15,200$11,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9527468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Thunder73c15,032$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,031.9612529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Thunder73c14,788$10,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,992.6713063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Warriors1c14,012$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7267911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17db…5f6dbacked Thunder73c13,699$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,698.632060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Thunder74c13,514$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,513.5134062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Thunder74c13,212$9,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,435.1211558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Warriors26c12,325$3,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,204.447745.5%35 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Thunder72c11,800$8,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,285.957957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Warriors8c10,403$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.0333743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Thunder72c10,299$7,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,930.8978445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd4…8ed6backed Thunder73c9,684$7,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,614.71050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Warriors27c9,530$2,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,552.7713943.2%60 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…770cbacked Warriors24c9,242$2,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.026665.2%43 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Warriors27c8,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1606636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Warriors0c7,705$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.158820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Thunder73c7,500$5,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,02534645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Warriors28c7,100$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9881,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Warriors1c6,359$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.578783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Warriors28c6,168$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.872,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Warriors26c6,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Warriors26c6,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56016446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfadc…472ebacked Thunder73c5,500$4,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4852777.8%21 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Thunder73c5,497$4,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.3292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Thunder73c5,478$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.086155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Warriors28c5,357$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Warriors25c5,330$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.5340648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Warriors27c5,114$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.3455346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Warriors4c5,091$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.911,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Thunder73c5,035$3,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.4531347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Thunder73c5,000$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3503351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Thunder72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.9576850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc30b…1b6dbacked Warriors26c4,835$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.156854.4%37 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Thunder80c4,326$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.911,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad71…4c93backed Warriors29c4,200$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd56b…903dbacked Thunder71c4,200$2,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Thunder75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Warriors16c4,000$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.548132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Warriors26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9946928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Warriors27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9718142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Warriors27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9712334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Warriors27c3,823$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.144129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Warriors27c3,397$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.2661835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Warriors27c3,333$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.7810235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Warriors8c3,270$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014040%56 W · 84 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bd…efddbacked Thunder79c3,189$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.591369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Warriors27c3,136$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.2144648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Warriors27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81075347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Warriors17c3,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Thunder72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9739958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf032…4456backed Warriors27c2,900$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Warriors26c2,800$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72823644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Thunder74c2,709$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.2711452.6%60 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0de0…0884backed Thunder75c2,668$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.763154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder72c2,605$1,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.641,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Warriors27c2,577$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.012,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8a…4926backed Thunder75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcad…eeb9backed Warriors28c2,500$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c1…06cebacked Warriors27c2,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6753125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Thunder79c2,467$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.120851.4%107 W · 101 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder78c2,383$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.378,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8302…806ebacked Warriors22c2,193$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.972030%6 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors27c2,190$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.883,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc228…7a7dbacked Warriors1c2,100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128457.1%48 W · 36 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+34.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Warriors25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50048137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Warriors27c2,000$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53224330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Thunder74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5202352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Warriors17c2,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9929458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Warriors13c1,980$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.42,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.