Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44af80634383aeaaca0b61e7c4cde4c0d5107e5acf242af3e7a0a33c48e2fc31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 35c | 14,290$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,001.5 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 10,898$7,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,863.1 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 4,492$2,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 4,123$2,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.34 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 78c | 3,536$2,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 38c | 1,180$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.33 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Over | 62c | 984.21$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.21 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 34c | 969.67$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.41 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed Over | 51c | 925.95$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 64c | 830.36$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.42 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 764.13$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.23 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 731.77$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.73 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 21c | 699.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 62c | 625.94$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.91 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 582.33$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.9 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 423.98$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.42 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 377.95$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 60c | 325.33$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 312.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.91 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 245$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 38c | 176.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 151.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed Over | 36c | 138.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 30c | 135.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 67c | 120.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 45c | 101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 99.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Over | 34c | 82.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 33c | 69.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +71%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 26c | 68.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 25c | 64.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Over | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 27c | 56.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 69c | 53.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 52c | 53.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76de…85ccbacked Over | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 55c | 50.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 72c | 47.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…39a9backed Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 35c | 44.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b2…dcc5backed Under | 68c | 42.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 51c | 42.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Under | 70c | 40.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 36c | 40.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 46c | 39.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Over | 31c | 34.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 65c | 34.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 45c | 33.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 58c | 27.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 58c | 27.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 58c | 27.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 56c | 25.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 73c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.