TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Australian A League · resolved market

Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,188
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,863

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,188 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1333…173bbacked Over44c7,891$3,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,418.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under56c7,209$4,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,026.9113049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Over49c6,948$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,543.471952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under53c5,061$2,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,686.7122652.7%119 W · 107 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc95b…f819backed Under51c4,362$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2201361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under51c3,142$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.71050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Over69c2,653$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.719336.6%34 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under49c2,307$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.492259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over54c1,768$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.1598844.4%439 W · 549 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f9…87b0backed Over47c1,328$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.981464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over58c1,225$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.927254.2%39 W · 33 L+9.2wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over50c1,150$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa32…4b93backed Under50c1,109$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…dababacked Under51c945.15$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over48c897.54$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.4414755.1%81 W · 66 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0988…f6f9backed Over50c700$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc43c…1310backed Under50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over63c589.7$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.648853.4%47 W · 41 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Over51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.247435.1%26 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under15c533.13$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9713540.7%55 W · 80 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over65c519.16$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.719257.6%53 W · 39 L+10.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+33.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over53c448.67$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.128353%44 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under51c435.49$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2223647.2%17 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Under7c334.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241650%8 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Over51c312.55$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over59c287.66$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9247850.8%243 W · 235 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe477…b1b8backed Over51c248.05$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under13c220$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.723551.5%121 W · 114 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba12…6a47backed Under50c210.33$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…0263backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987365.8%48 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe828…82d1backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under18c193.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.873850%19 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under18c193.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.873253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Under38c192.09$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.922512%3 W · 22 L-5.5wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-59.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over50c187.5$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.758625.6%22 W · 64 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Over69c160.36$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.231435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-40.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over57c157.33$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4419849%97 W · 101 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over46c152.5$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2711752.1%61 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53eb…90ebbacked Under53c150.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Over48c138.86$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.181323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-56.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb51f…b7dbbacked Over44c135$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.61250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Under56c118.2$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6510357.3%59 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Under58c117.04$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.121030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81b0…5159backed Under54c115.69$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.383351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa24f…7c58backed Under18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under13c107.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.976434.4%22 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Over50c107$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.012070%14 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+33.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a35…2580backed Under12c98.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.043964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b0…07bfbacked Over49c91.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x036f…0dc1backed Over55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over50c90.3$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7711940.3%48 W · 71 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over72c90.24$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0630536.1%110 W · 195 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over48c88.65$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1532453.1%172 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Over49c80.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.982564%16 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+44.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under46c77.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4210757.9%62 W · 45 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd410…1d61backed Over48c74.94$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa23f…a64ebacked Under50c71.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.974557.8%26 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fca…cfc3backed Under50c71.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.971353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Over52c71.18$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.185250%26 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Under24c59.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141612.5%2 W · 14 L-5.2wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-77.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9548…1226backed Under53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Over51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked Under56c44.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over46c43.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4911057.3%63 W · 47 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over54c42.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.432147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Over48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.678247.6%39 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e41…36f2backed Over48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.811457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef4a…0314backed Under50c39.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under51c37.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd89d…d6b7backed Over48c37.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Over48c37.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.266162.3%38 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…8ca1backed Under50c35.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked Over50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc758…4019backed Over50c29.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over48c29.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.171457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ec…470cbacked Over51c28.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed Over46c27.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.88933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over52c26.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6113243.2%57 W · 75 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…d4a6backed Over49c26.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed Over51c25.22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.363938.5%15 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6653…b9e0backed Over50c24.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5315…0d51backed Under50c23.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x266c…7c8cbacked Over50c23.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc681…dbfdbacked Under50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb624…6147backed Under50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd010…8c7fbacked Under50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7366…03b1backed Under50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d46…1759backed Under50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c1…113fbacked Under50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb42f…e986backed Under50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec95…3dfabacked Over50c22.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x581b…8a78backed Over50c22.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533f…e03abacked Over50c22.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3b…70f7backed Over50c22.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61b6…fcd0backed Over50c22.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.