Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02f4e98f5f2dedaddf1b5eb2152e045934b931aef710cdd3fd5630259d7568ba

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,731
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $39,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,731 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1e77…8c33backed Under	29c	17,889$5,186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,185.95	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over	71c	14,525$10,302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,222.85	110	55.5%61 W · 49 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Over	70c	5,671$3,957 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,714.18	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	30c	2,311$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.43	988	44.4%439 W · 549 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…2134backed Over	69c	2,000$1,386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$614.13	140	60.7%85 W · 55 L	+19.7wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+31%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	30c	1,252$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.63	437	48.3%211 W · 226 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	30c	1,234$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.2	147	55.1%81 W · 66 L	+8.9wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Under	31c	996.35$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.87	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Under	29c	758.8$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.15	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-5.5wins	-0.22per pick	34cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over	71c	704.23$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.23	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2b…ab92backed Over	72c	446.38$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.32	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Over	75c	401.83$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.83	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	54cpaid	-53%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	67c	375.38$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.38	69	58%40 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	70c	350$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	108	39.8%43 W · 65 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	28c	202.06$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.8	108	37%40 W · 68 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	29c	189.32$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.09	119	40.3%48 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Under	22c	189.32$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.65	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	65c	182.08$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.73	72	54.2%39 W · 33 L	+9.2wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under	28c	164.64$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.1	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under	28c	164.64$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.1	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	6c	160.86$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	135	40.7%55 W · 80 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over	72c	140$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	73	65.8%48 W · 25 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	22c	128.41$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.1	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	30c	124.37$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.64	132	43.2%57 W · 75 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	35c	108.31$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.91	478	50.8%243 W · 235 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.12per pick	60cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-28%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	52	55.8%29 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	51	54.9%28 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b8c…31c3backed Over	79c	103.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.33per pick	50cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0988…f6f9backed Over	69c	102.14$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.35	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over	72c	87.39$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.47	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Under	31c	82.82$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.68	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.3wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Over	71c	81.44$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.62	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0efb…016cbacked Over	71c	80.13$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.24	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.38per pick	58cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94d4…18f9backed Over	71c	80.13$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.24	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Over	71c	78.58$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.79	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Over	71c	77.03$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.34	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Over	69c	73$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.63	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf421…2e3abacked Over	71c	70.24$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.37	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Under	22c	64.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.33per pick	50cpaid	+58.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under	30c	63.56$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.07	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47f9…4731backed Over	71c	60$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe9c…1700backed Over	71c	59.21$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.17	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.15per pick	59cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Over	71c	59.21$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.17	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x810d…6080backed Over	71c	59.21$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.17	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d3d…9ab6backed Under	31c	58.03$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under	33c	52.45$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	58cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under	27c	51.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	107	57.9%62 W · 45 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe777…c734backed Over	71c	49.21$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.27	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under	28c	44.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63c3…a7fdbacked Over	71c	42.25$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x241e…04cbbacked Over	72c	41.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.67	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Under	28c	40.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Over	68c	38$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.16	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.42per pick	59cpaid	+74%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3f9…2e72backed Under	32c	38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd89d…d6b7backed Under	32c	37.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9624…0b05backed Over	70c	31.43$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.43	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b894backed Over	69c	30.43$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.43	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under	34c	30.43$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over	71c	30.28$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb96…34b9backed Over	72c	28.69$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.03	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	60cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…1805backed Over	72c	28.68$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.03	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4666…3a55backed Over	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae02…7ed0backed Over	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a7…64fdbacked Over	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Over	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-3.5wins	-0.27per pick	65cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x17f5…3e64backed Over	71c	25.55$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.41	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	70c	25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	324	53.1%172 W · 152 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Over	67c	18.59$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.11	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.18per pick	59cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc1c…2bf2backed Over	71c	15.5$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.5wins	-0.49per pick	69cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ea7…1be7backed Over	71c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.35	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.40per pick	35cpaid	+154.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5this page
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event