Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x982dc1eb2b700ea3382d3df0b2c84fc9bb49f998f0b467d0f7f1df4036b4ca3e

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,724 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf658…655ebacked Under	71c	1,493$1,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,058	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Over	68c	1,474$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$473.51	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	69c	1,336$922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$921.6	110	55.5%61 W · 49 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Over	31c	1,300$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$897	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+104.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	48c	1,177$561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$616.54	72	54.2%39 W · 33 L	+9.2wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0xfabc…2134backed Over	69c	1,158$802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$355.84	140	60.7%85 W · 55 L	+19.7wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+31%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over	29c	966.92$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$684.11	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-5.5wins	-0.22per pick	34cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9ef1…cea5backed Under	11c	890.19$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.98	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	27cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	40c	770.35$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.05	988	44.4%439 W · 549 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Under	22c	756.97$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.84	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under	70c	712.27$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	14c	692.98$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.45	135	40.7%55 W · 80 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c7f…7f52backed Under	70c	669.98$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	29c	564.24$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400.61	147	55.1%81 W · 66 L	+8.9wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	29c	506.85$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.17	235	51.5%121 W · 114 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	71c	484.37$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.47	309	54.7%169 W · 140 L	+8.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6394…9749backed Over	32c	470.47$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.47	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over	30c	468.95$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.29	119	40.3%48 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	23c	464.97$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.86	247	32.4%80 W · 167 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2e…a948backed Under	25c	400.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-5.3wins	-0.30per pick	46cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under	37c	381.52$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.36	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	28c	378.57$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.57	108	39.8%43 W · 65 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9579…44d4backed Under	73c	342.47$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.32per pick	52cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over	32c	340$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.2	73	65.8%48 W · 25 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Under	39c	318.98$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.15	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30b9…9b83backed Under	47c	310.9$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.99	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	63c	294.5$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.04	130	49.2%64 W · 66 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	34c	294.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1650…42f6backed Under	34c	292.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.14	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	37cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under	42c	281.52$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.17	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	30c	270.97$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.55	324	53.1%172 W · 152 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	29c	266.06$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.78	108	37%40 W · 68 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over	31c	260$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.4	86	25.6%22 W · 64 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under	46c	249.86$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.72	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	48c	248.37$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.37	478	50.8%243 W · 235 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over	30c	211.27$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.59	132	43.2%57 W · 75 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Under	38c	202.58$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-5.2wins	-0.32per pick	45cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Under	34c	171.02$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.9	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	39c	169.1$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.78	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	+8.0wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Over	60c	165.62$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.62	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	54cpaid	-53%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over	73c	164.29$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.29	50	66%33 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	66cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under	74c	163.96$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.35	107	57.9%62 W · 45 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Over	30c	153.25$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.02	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over	71c	149.3$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.3	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x702b…4e4abacked Over	75c	140.78$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.92	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3248…8ba9backed Over	77c	130$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.9	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	64c	125$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	69	58%40 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa23f…a64ebacked Under	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fca…cfc3backed Under	12c	124.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Over	31c	122.58$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.58	52	50%26 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over	69c	121.45$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.65	60	50%30 W · 30 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6655…1764backed Under	38c	120.27$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.85	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Over	25c	111.84$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.88	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Under	72c	110$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	69cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0efb…016cbacked Under	70c	109.87$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.95	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.38per pick	58cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Under	71c	105.75$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.68	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1155…2315backed Over	75c	100$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	8	100%8 W · 0 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Under	44c	97.19$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.13	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.3wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under	45c	96.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.58	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24f…7c58backed Over	71c	95.94$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.8	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Over	32c	93.75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.75	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…abcbbacked Under	43c	93.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Under	20c	93.33$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	37c	69.22$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.69	286	59.4%170 W · 116 L	+12.9wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	22c	67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	31c	64.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.28	83	53%44 W · 39 L	+8.1wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over	80c	62.5$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134c…eeefbacked Under	34c	59.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over	73c	59.03$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.03	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a35…2580backed Under	28c	56.94$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.01	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0079…b852backed Over	70c	52.95$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.95	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67c9…1798backed Under	39c	52.61$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a1…6472backed Over	28c	42.86$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.86	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.72per pick	28cpaid	+257.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2b…e467backed Under	70c	42.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed62…6f83backed Over	59c	42.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b894backed Over	72c	41.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.67	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under	70c	40$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.16per pick	68cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63c3…a7fdbacked Under	70c	35.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.17	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over	64c	31.15$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.15	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa06…1e0fbacked Under	38c	29.28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd354…ff2fbacked Under	73c	29.25$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.35	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	72cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32e0…a295backed Over	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	8	100%8 W · 0 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	40c	27.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc1c…2bf2backed Under	67c	19.3$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.5wins	-0.49per pick	69cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Over	63c	19.05$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over	67c	17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.61	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+61.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1b7…fefdbacked Under	70c	16.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	65cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	72c	16.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.79	198	49%97 W · 101 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Over	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5this page
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event