NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b3f94435c23ef2607bbf1352973ca4d673f197e9b503a4930eb7406b7b20781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Pistons, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Wizards | 54c | 8,639$4,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,973.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 57c | 7,610$4,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,272.21 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 46c | 5,958$2,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pistons | 43c | 4,467$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.81 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Pistons | 47c | 1,515$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.46 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 53c | 1,258$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.89 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Pistons | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Pistons | 48c | 1,035$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pistons | 44c | 937$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.28 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Wizards | 56c | 808.34$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Pistons | 47c | 724$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.28 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pistons | 44c | 654.06$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.78 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pistons | 44c | 516.34$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.33 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Pistons | 44c | 468.5$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.14 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Wizards | 55c | 342$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…c942backed Pistons | 48c | 170$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Wizards | 54c | 97.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Pistons | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Wizards | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)this page
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pistons (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. PistonsPistons won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.