NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3afd4ce738b856eef426117e56d11962928540ee1c6649b7c95eebe304ee4f62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Wizards, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Pistons | 75c | 13,130$9,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,284.5 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Pistons | 76c | 13,105$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,105.36 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Wizards | 25c | 9,389$2,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360.52 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wizards | 22c | 4,607$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.84 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wizards | 1c | 1,830$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pistons | 74c | 623.72$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.17 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wizards | 22c | 568$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bb…61babacked Pistons | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Wizards | 23c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed Pistons | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Wizards | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked Wizards | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed Wizards | 28c | 36.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Pistons | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…634fbacked Pistons | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Pistons: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pistons (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. PistonsPistons won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.