NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x629bfb282c2007da8aad2e761beccfded1060232da706d9e8314ba2728698068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Pistons, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Wizards | 51c | 94,889$48,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,789.45 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 49c | 39,649$19,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,427.99 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Pistons | 50c | 27,972$13,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,986 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Pistons | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Pistons | 51c | 9,619$4,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,905.82 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Wizards | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857c…cb02backed Wizards | 52c | 7,576$3,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,636.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pistons | 48c | 6,666$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.68 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pistons | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Wizards | 50c | 2,700$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Pistons | 50c | 2,650$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Wizards | 51c | 2,222$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.78 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pistons | 49c | 1,939$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.69 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 49c | 1,907$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Pistons | 50c | 1,695$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.32 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 48c | 1,319$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.02 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Pistons | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Pistons | 52c | 1,129$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.1 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Pistons | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pistons | 49c | 913.23$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.26 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Pistons | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Pistons | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 49c | 616.08$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.56 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Pistons | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wizards | 50c | 501.5$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.71 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Pistons | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Wizards | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Pistons | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 440 | 40.5%178 W · 262 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcf…96aebacked Wizards | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b1…f285backed Pistons | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Pistons | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards | 48c | 311.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.18 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…6930backed Wizards | 48c | 301.92$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pistons | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Wizards | 50c | 282.94$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.79 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Pistons | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Pistons | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Pistons | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Pistons | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Pistons | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 29c | 118$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Pistons | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Pistons | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Pistons | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…4ee7backed Wizards | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Pistons | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Pistons | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Pistons | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Pistons | 55c | 91.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 50c | 88.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pistons | 30c | 83.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Wizards | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…6fcabacked Wizards | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wizards | 48c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Pistons | 51c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Pistons | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Pistons | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Wizards | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda1c…2c69backed Pistons | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Wizards | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Pistons | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Wizards | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Pistons | 48c | 43.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…6dbebacked Wizards | 72c | 40.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Wizards | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Pistons | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Pistons | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Pistons | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…03afbacked Pistons | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…1bbdbacked Pistons | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…0583backed Pistons | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Pistons | 45c | 38.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Wizards | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af6…120dbacked Pistons | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Wizards | 49c | 28.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1fa0backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…75a1backed Pistons | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…7d5fbacked Wizards | 57c | 18.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pistons (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. PistonsPistons won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.