NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7387eb07641b73fb3c73a0cc448f77375f828b3e737a401b32a67d17733d003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x243b…64f2backed Under | 54c | 16,556$8,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,940.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…2973backed Over | 46c | 8,500$3,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,590 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…c46abacked Over | 46c | 8,049$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,339.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,575$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 55c | 923.64$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…3047backed Over | 51c | 675.71$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 532.33$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 429$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 334.31$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.17 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 47c | 270.35$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…fc18backed Over | 47c | 185$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…958cbacked Under | 53c | 174$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Under | 55c | 107.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Under | 56c | 71.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 54.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c70…173bbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7991…ef53backed Under | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 54c | 24.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 68c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5this page
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pistons (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. PistonsPistons won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.