Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858ef2f9282e37c853455256a4ab82d75a5c48977d73e1c4743df7960f745bba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 60c | 11,677$6,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,697.28 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 6,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 24c | 4,621$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.04 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 2,295$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.38 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 49c | 2,205$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.21 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Under | 55c | 1,995$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Under | 60c | 1,920$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.28 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +6.2wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 1,519$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.73 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,081$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.86 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Over | 50c | 1,065$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 25c | 968$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 28c | 829.22$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.23 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 40c | 679.99$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.17 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 25c | 642.72$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.04 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 562.62$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.32 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 74c | 475.41$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 53c | 473.62$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.9 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 442.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.79 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 44c | 389.89$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.89 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 61c | 327.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 59c | 297.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Under | 48c | 280.71$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 44c | 270$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…acddbacked Over | 79c | 254.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 43c | 233.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 74c | 216.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…44a9backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 50c | 170.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 65c | 153.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 27c | 149$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 74c | 140$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Under | 25c | 136$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +175.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 78c | 135.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 113.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 10c | 110.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 46c | 103.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 45c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 48c | 87.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Under | 57c | 84.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…fbf2backed Under | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 78.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 49c | 74.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 40c | 73.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 24c | 62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 25c | 61.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 48c | 55.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 67c | 50.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…40fabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 46c | 48.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Over | 44c | 44.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 32c | 43.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Over | 48c | 43.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…2ba1backed Under | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 49c | 38.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 51c | 35.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbc…3fe1backed Under | 35c | 34.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…f911backed Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.