Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20a85c17b6a2bc40eb518cc4ad49a92511a922609815739a5ed413800538e3d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 35c | 6,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 5,956$3,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.64 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 59c | 3,689$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 2,038$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.37 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Under | 61c | 1,032$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.27 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +6.2wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 1,030$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.55 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Over | 52c | 999.98$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 43c | 999.81$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Over | 48c | 977$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 45c | 680$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 31c | 322.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 216.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 43c | 149$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 69c | 144.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 37c | 136.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 31c | 125.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 30c | 101.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 55c | 90.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 58c | 83.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…456fbacked Over | 39c | 77.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 38c | 76.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 58c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Under | 52c | 72.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 41c | 54.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…718abacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 43c | 33.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 45c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Under | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 25.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 21.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 47c | 21.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.