Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3df527b82f22dd0e8203431a87b7e4cfa518ecb1ede97368218b934d86638166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 2,262$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.68 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 1,882$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.99 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 51c | 1,500$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 44c | 912$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.54 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 41c | 661.24$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.22 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 656.27$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.5 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 71c | 638.81$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.02 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 17c | 612.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.6 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Under | 35c | 539.8$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 71c | 383.64$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 305.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.45 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 49c | 244.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x408c…9a1dbacked Over | 68c | 238.85$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 9c | 207.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.72 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…997ebacked Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…811bbacked Under | 11c | 188.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 18c | 187.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 64c | 184.72$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 51c | 131.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Under | 34c | 121.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 27c | 109.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 66c | 107.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…5dcebacked Over | 40c | 105.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…1c1dbacked Over | 49c | 101.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf128…053bbacked Under | 33c | 89.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +198.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 71c | 78.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 65c | 75.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Under | 31c | 63.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 30c | 54.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 36c | 52.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 71c | 48.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Over | 25c | 46.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfac…b532backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe24…b0acbacked Under | 35c | 32.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 55c | 28.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Under | 71c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.