Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9459523f482dc2033d782522982d34ba190d07ed8466c157759203e87c4f29e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd456…aba4backed Under | 50c | 4,266$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 3,729$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.93 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 49c | 3,227$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.43 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 53c | 2,443$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 1,437$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.15 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.31 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 44c | 699.99$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 56c | 609.23$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.06 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Under | 57c | 599.93$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Under | 56c | 399.98$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 327.41$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.93 | 706 | 52.3%369 W · 337 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 51c | 294.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Under | 45c | 161.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 44c | 112.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Over | 56c | 108$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 50c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 47c | 74.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…9408backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 45c | 55.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 49c | 54.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1427…859fbacked Over | 49c | 51.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 42c | 35.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 58c | 35.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096e…efd8backed Under | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 58c | 27.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 58c | 27.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 57c | 20.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.