Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bca179a9fa7684185972d94fa3851d228ca4c7534aa4205a11743ac0b70a7f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 51c | 599.98$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.99 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 49c | 572.02$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.03 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 69c | 540.38$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.47 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 28c | 531$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 75c | 400.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 51c | 296.08$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 35c | 286.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 261.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Under | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 190.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d44…2f97backed Under | 41c | 176.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Over | 50c | 171$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 161.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 49c | 161$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…b2f0backed Under | 35c | 85.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 48c | 31.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 53c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…d1d3backed Over | 78c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.