Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e4daaa6313e293031b81b0dc0031c2802eeffa202ab1456ea911f9eaf86ad09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fagiano Okayamaof Gamba Ōsaka, Fagiano Okayama
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fagiano Okayama | 76c | 1,098$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.83 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Gamba Ōsaka | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Gamba Ōsaka | 17c | 345.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Gamba Ōsaka | 21c | 318$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Gamba Ōsaka | 22c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe960…ea22backed Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 215.71$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…6582backed Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 204.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ce…5893backed Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 203$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…f72ebacked Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 200.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff0…053cbacked Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 200.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Fagiano Okayama | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…15e2backed Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 198.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa286…591bbacked Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 198.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…6ddbbacked Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 198.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…3f99backed Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…ccecbacked Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 197.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb479…cdcabacked Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 196.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…43fbbacked Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 193.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…36e0backed Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 192.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…6558backed Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 190.77$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfd…72debacked Fagiano Okayama | 50c | 189.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Fagiano Okayama | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Gamba Ōsaka | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Fagiano Okayama | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Gamba Ōsaka | 19c | 52.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Fagiano Okayama | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Fagiano Okayama | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.