Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf32a01b4a7d8e74f6b0ffe610617de0921a182f7309616fbc01ef2e1ba355118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 16c | 2,363$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 35c | 2,159$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.62 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…a022backed Under | 6c | 2,099$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +170%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 11c | 1,020$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.42 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 11c | 1,011$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 347.42$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.41 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 47c | 299.68$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…f05abacked Over | 71c | 295.54$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Under | 63c | 290.48$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 12c | 206.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.48 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…718dbacked Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Over | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 12c | 170.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.96 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Under | 60c | 110.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 49c | 102.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 51c | 92.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Over | 65c | 76.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…4169backed Over | 68c | 51.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…bc8cbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…3ec7backed Under | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 59c | 33.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 68c | 30.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…964fbacked Over | 51c | 28.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 51c | 25.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…b68abacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Under | 74c | 23.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…4a6cbacked Over | 73c | 17.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.