La Liga · resolved market

Burgos CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae9c460bfe9b08473498fc64c741ea9918a29c18b6919fda0001087ede9a096a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $16,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,097 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in La Liga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Under	53c	3,030$1,596 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,433.68	3,444	43%1,482 W · 1,962 L	+31.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa396…0019backed Over	29c	2,101$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.92	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	63c	1,967$1,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$726.89	4,729	47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee19…555ebacked Over	37c	992.97$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.4	142	50.7%72 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over	33c	918.59$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	124	45.2%56 W · 68 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	64c	910.42$583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.63	1,418	45.6%646 W · 772 L	-10.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over	56c	892.86$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	38	73.7%28 W · 10 L	+6.8wins	+0.18per pick	56cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	60c	763.26$459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.55	1,798	51.4%924 W · 874 L	+6.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	55c	739.75$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$332.6	828	44.8%371 W · 457 L	+15.4wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	61c	687.85$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.35	2,339	48.5%1,135 W · 1,204 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over	38c	657.89$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ac…c267backed Over	42c	600$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Under	34c	588.24$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.24	216	41.7%90 W · 126 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Over	40c	500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	378	29.4%111 W · 267 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-19%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under	61c	327.95$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.9	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Over	56c	312.5$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…0263backed Over	34c	298.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ece…8786backed Over	36c	277.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9796…9032backed Over	40c	267.65$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.06	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.7wins	+0.30per pick	48cpaid	+85.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over	51c	201.93$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	84	39.3%33 W · 51 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	59c	200.35$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.64	1,018	53.1%541 W · 477 L	-24.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8c…3d1abacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d12…cc43backed Over	59c	169.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	-5.3wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over	38c	160.53$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	193	44.6%86 W · 107 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe612…ee20backed Over	64c	158.73$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.59	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over	41c	123.71$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.72	153	44.4%68 W · 85 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over	78c	121.79$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	223	50.2%112 W · 111 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7baf…99a7backed Over	15c	114.04$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	55	21.8%12 W · 43 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over	39c	112.21$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.76	187	47.1%88 W · 99 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ba…835cbacked Over	18c	111$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dec…3302backed Over	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	90	33.3%30 W · 60 L	-5.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	627	44.3%278 W · 349 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	161	49.7%80 W · 81 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc32…00bfbacked Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd03…df4abacked Over	34c	90$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	80	28.8%23 W · 57 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4148…4397backed Over	34c	87.43$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	92	46.7%43 W · 49 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	59c	84.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	223	57%127 W · 96 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	66c	81.16$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.19	284	46.5%132 W · 152 L	-16.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under	63c	81.04$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.01	227	58.1%132 W · 95 L	+9.3wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	61c	79.49$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	245	46.9%115 W · 130 L	-8.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under	64c	78$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.12	203	60.1%122 W · 81 L	+8.5wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Under	63c	76.8$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.42	176	59.7%105 W · 71 L	+8.2wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	43c	70.94$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	1,651	43.9%724 W · 927 L	-21.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over	40c	69.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	40	75%30 W · 10 L	+7.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf421…2e3abacked Over	40c	69.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b8c…31c3backed Over	40c	69.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	71	50.7%36 W · 35 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x622e…1a89backed Over	72c	69.44$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under	61c	62.57$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.4	109	47.7%52 W · 57 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe9c…1700backed Over	40c	61.41$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.46	75	50.7%38 W · 37 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x810d…6080backed Over	40c	61.41$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.46	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfaf…064abacked Under	27c	56.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.92	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Over	37c	55.81$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	96	29.2%28 W · 68 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under	63c	55.59$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.57	307	49.2%151 W · 156 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	39c	54.3$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.11	1,497	38.6%578 W · 919 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	36c	52.66$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	501	49.5%248 W · 253 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed Over	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0095…42c1backed Over	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	221	57%126 W · 95 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe86a…7b4cbacked Over	61c	50$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x241e…04cbbacked Over	40c	49.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over	42c	47.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	54.3%57 W · 48 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	68c	44.35$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	223	66.8%149 W · 74 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under	64c	43.67$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.85	164	56.7%93 W · 71 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under	64c	43.29$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.62	178	56.7%101 W · 77 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Over	77c	38.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.04	180	62.2%112 W · 68 L	+8.6wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0efb…016cbacked Under	67c	36.94$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.14	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked Over	39c	35.75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	324	44.8%145 W · 179 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc63a…26a0backed Over	71c	34.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under	64c	34.49$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	192	60.9%117 W · 75 L	+14.6wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8de7…61c0backed Over	36c	33.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Over	40c	30.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	65	55.4%36 W · 29 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Under	61c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	119	62.2%74 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdefb…79afbacked Over	39c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+16%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef5c…6ababacked Over	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	34	70.6%24 W · 10 L	+3.6wins	+0.11per pick	60cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf5e…75c5backed Over	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2273…7e01backed Under	46c	24.58$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.28	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Under	65c	23.08$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.08	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under	67c	22.94$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.54	112	66.1%74 W · 38 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b14…5301backed Under	50c	20.42$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.19	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under	69c	20.04$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.21	50	36%18 W · 32 L	-8.5wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x65b3…7fc9backed Under	54c	19.89$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.18	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3248…8ba9backed Over	61c	18.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over	74c	17.48$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.94	196	62.8%123 W · 73 L	+20.5wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Under	70c	16.91$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.08	82	46.3%38 W · 44 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Under	68c	14.84$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	51	72.5%37 W · 14 L	+5.8wins	+0.11per pick	61cpaid	+17%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Burgos CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5this page
Burgos CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Burgos CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Burgos CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Burgos CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5)Burgos CF won
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-2.5)Burgos CF won
Spread: Burgos CF (-1.5)AD Ceuta FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Burgos CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event