TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,744 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3fd9…1ef0backed Over60c13,635$8,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,453.912055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under41c11,551$4,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,779.173,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over61c10,484$6,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,093.866761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under44c7,550$3,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.1948141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under39c6,998$2,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,761.6769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over60c6,833$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.2110041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Over61c5,901$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,301.342857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed Over61c4,544$2,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.256453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under40c4,440$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.21,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Under39c3,300$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2873554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under46c3,066$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.7775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under51c2,642$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.214351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under40c2,592$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.9121355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2fb…610cbacked Under39c2,470$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Under40c2,276$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.428448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Over61c2,134$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.392568%17 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over58c2,096$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.639856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf99e…4d03backed Under2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002450%12 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over61c1,849$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.7129855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under39c1,756$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.7120845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under40c1,644$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.74030%12 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-45.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf00e…00f4backed Over62c1,614$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.3988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick64cpaid+56.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over55c1,568$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.672,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e19…1495backed Over55c1,367$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.362373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Under39c1,247$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.7714447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under40c1,230$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.0620548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under40c1,230$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.0618644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Under40c1,168$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.263948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Under40c1,135$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.941060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Over49c1,132$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.413548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Under38c1,111$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over60c1,100$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4404641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over62c1,086$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.559854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over60c1,072$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.8716850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under40c1,060$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.5328755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3520…1fa0backed Over48c1,009$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.771020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe612…ee20backed Over61c962.16$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.241968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over50c840$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under40c819.02$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.723946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under39c781.56$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.181732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under43c741.66$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.891,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under40c725$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.1942046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cad…0758backed Over60c662.2$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.881163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under46c657.79$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1864043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a04…ea4cbacked Under55c649.97$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under39c607.51$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.938251.2%42 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4c…39c0backed Under8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under39c584.17$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.8217749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under39c566.6$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.986453.1%34 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under39c566.44$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.986842.6%29 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9113…1cfabacked Over60c539.78$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde19…e90dbacked Over50c512.16$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under39c510$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.96435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Under3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14254%1 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under39c492.2$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9617852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under38c426.77$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.171,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9660…ba56backed Over61c426.01$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.141275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under39c415.92$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2118554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under41c399.73$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0255058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Over49c395.65$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7824132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over61c382.82$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.35064%32 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2569…5d2dbacked Under52c371.35$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…2b92backed Under39c370.54$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Over60c366$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.42860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f9e…4c57backed Over54c360.15$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.675127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Under39c337.34$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.731050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed Under8c336.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.17120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e68…16c7backed Over60c324.79$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.561070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under40c318.07$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1517247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under39c307.01$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7343532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Under39c301.28$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.55538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under40c297.18$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.981,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Under39c290.95$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.472138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Under39c279.04$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.832737%10 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under39c279.04$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8312346.3%57 W · 66 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10cb…8f74backed Over50c265.57$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7b…440fbacked Under6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under39c247.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.347751.9%40 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under39c246.95$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.314744.7%21 W · 26 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-29.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under40c245.82$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3315244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf689…3e3fbacked Under40c210.68$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.273243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed Under48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Over52c194.24$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.247646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over50c190$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8534655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over61c185.2$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8112056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ace…3afdbacked Under39c178.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under40c162.7$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4633047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Over61c160.1$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.442850%14 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a30…eb65backed Over61c160.1$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under39c159.41$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1710647.2%50 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed Under38c149.14$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.154951%25 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over60c147.1$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3722562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97b3…4a85backed Under40c125.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.133345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Under39c123.51$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.175149%25 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under52c120.49$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5120645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under48c117.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.647550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Over53c112.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.034858.3%28 W · 20 L+8.8wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+49.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under39c112.22$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7715048%72 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aa1…a420backed Over53c110.02$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.712917.2%5 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-57.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.