Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b9b6b8a4b73ee9b83a2972e4a89c2cfacecfa83824191865d1c4abe2d9bc6b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 1,367$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 59c | 1,097$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.87 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed No | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Yes | 59c | 362.7$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.93 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 59c | 285.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Yes | 57c | 263$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 59c | 247.98$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 41c | 226.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 41c | 200.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Yes | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 49c | 193.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 42c | 178.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 58c | 169.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 43c | 168.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…b39abacked Yes | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 59c | 136.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 59c | 136.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 41c | 117.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked No | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…0758backed Yes | 59c | 62.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 41c | 61.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 59c | 57.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed No | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 40c | 35.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Yes | 59c | 34.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 47c | 34.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 41c | 30.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Yes | 50c | 30.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.