Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3909c5cbc1ddf422cdba2c2c3203c44efa344fe543c8bcc94c9c9265c2359c61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846of SC Freiburg, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b7…d633backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 65c | 1,100$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.99 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 66c | 1,089$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.42 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed SC Freiburg | 28c | 771.69$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.13 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked SC Freiburg | 36c | 521.86$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.87 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 64c | 509.01$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.57 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked SC Freiburg | 7c | 331.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed SC Freiburg | 31c | 247.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed SC Freiburg | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed SC Freiburg | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked SC Freiburg | 35c | 173.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 64c | 169.13$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…2a69backed SC Freiburg | 29c | 165.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SC Freiburg | 17c | 152.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…12eebacked SC Freiburg | 36c | 133.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SC Freiburg | 31c | 99.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 64c | 98.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed SC Freiburg | 35c | 68.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked SC Freiburg | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked SC Freiburg | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 64c | 61.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed SC Freiburg | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked SC Freiburg | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked SC Freiburg | 35c | 49.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed SC Freiburg | 36c | 42.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked SC Freiburg | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 64c | 41.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 65c | 41.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed SC Freiburg | 36c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…1ec6backed SC Freiburg | 36c | 39.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed SC Freiburg | 35c | 38.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 66c | 29.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)this page
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.