NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5319014674c7c7b6d92663718407f8f85f87707850bc5f61b4df323d182dfc16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 2,874$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.02 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 55c | 2,049$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.42 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 53c | 1,638$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.14 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 1,130$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 540.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.75 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 411.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.36 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 394.27$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.96 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…093cbacked Over | 53c | 297.55$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.7 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 39c | 255$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 55c | 225$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4c…1d5dbacked Under | 46c | 189$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…d854backed Over | 54c | 180$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 115.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…8ac9backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 53c | 45.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 55c | 35.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc706…faedbacked Over | 55c | 25.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 88 | 75%66 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.