NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87009042e0fa2323c6e816d0ac000000cc0e7937c3a7c9a2dfdc47a4f565bf61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Thunder | 54c | 17,744$9,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,162.09 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder | 53c | 13,258$7,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,231.18 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Lakers | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lakers | 47c | 9,119$4,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,285.93 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers | 47c | 8,607$4,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,045.29 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder | 53c | 7,385$3,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,470.74 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 46c | 4,203$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Lakers | 47c | 4,059$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.73 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lakers | 50c | 2,363$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.68 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Thunder | 53c | 2,150$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.73 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Thunder | 54c | 1,296$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.3 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Lakers | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Lakers | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Thunder | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Lakers | 45c | 909.09$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.09 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Lakers | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lakers | 49c | 850.09$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.18 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…370dbacked Thunder | 61c | 583.11$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers | 38c | 526.2$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 53c | 520.79$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.48 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Lakers | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Thunder | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Lakers | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Lakers | 51c | 295$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.45 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Lakers | 47c | 291.6$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.05 | 203 | 56.7%115 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 47c | 287$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Lakers | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…eb43backed Thunder | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Lakers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Lakers | 54c | 166.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 52c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Thunder | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Thunder | 54c | 93.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 48c | 80.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Lakers | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lakers | 37c | 77.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Lakers | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c70…173bbacked Lakers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Lakers | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 52c | 43.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Lakers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Lakers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Lakers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Lakers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Lakers | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb0…8ceebacked Lakers | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.