NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb083731c5b70e8a592f3fb9c3063c15f3977633d04497f27fdd9fe644a638b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 51c | 16,992$8,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,335.79 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,920 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 51c | 3,918$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.96 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,636$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.74 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 1,337$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.91 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 53c | 937.38$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 727$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.23 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 727$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.23 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…447cbacked Under | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 54c | 400.74$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.4 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 271.85$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 51c | 248.93$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 49c | 234$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…801fbacked Over | 51c | 195.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Over | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Over | 53c | 171.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 169$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 43c | 156.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…1fa6backed Over | 58c | 146.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 49c | 87.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…03c9backed Over | 49c | 85.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…a4a9backed Over | 48c | 76.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9f…4cc8backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -68%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8d…4a1cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…b52cbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…044dbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…e7f9backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca2…f018backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…cebcbacked Over | 53c | 26.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…28cebacked Over | 71c | 25.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.