NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1a5080306715d55c4aabd562c5e3f523c44eeb944362c9ca70dfcd7b8f70616
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 8,821$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,971.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 56c | 3,571$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Over | 55c | 1,273$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Over | 56c | 841.36$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.16 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 726.01$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.82 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…8ac9backed Over | 66c | 271.28$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…f5d8backed Over | 51c | 189$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95a…0cdcbacked Over | 56c | 178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 56c | 160.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 37c | 125.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…f769backed Over | 62c | 111$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…3914backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 62c | 78.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Over | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Under | 38c | 45.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…6f16backed Over | 55c | 45.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…1720backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…4fdabacked Over | 56c | 35.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…f4d7backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e898backed Over | 56c | 26.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…c5f3backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa873…9ed0backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…7d5fbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.