NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7052b9de358139fc7bc3bb0a5dc5b038ea52c0671d2020419c53ca335025b262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Thunder | 53c | 10,660$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,060.38 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Lakers | 48c | 10,000$4,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,750 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Thunder | 53c | 4,357$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047.79 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 45c | 2,677$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lakers | 47c | 2,189$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.03 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Lakers | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.98 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Thunder | 52c | 1,820$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.44 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Lakers | 44c | 1,072$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.08 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Lakers | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Thunder | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…9fbcbacked Thunder | 52c | 957.47$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.47 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Lakers | 47c | 699.99$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.99 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lakers | 46c | 644.41$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.77 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…3308backed Thunder | 53c | 564.85$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.85 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Lakers | 48c | 545.83$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Thunder | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Thunder | 52c | 426.92$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.92 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Thunder | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3a…ca1ebacked Thunder | 52c | 365.38$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef8…8a71backed Lakers | 49c | 364$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Lakers | 47c | 320.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…50e1backed Lakers | 48c | 286.8$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 48c | 211$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Lakers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Thunder | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Thunder | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Thunder | 52c | 141.12$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Lakers | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Thunder | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Thunder | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Thunder | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Lakers | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 42.9%96 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2577…9493backed Thunder | 57c | 80.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Lakers | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Thunder | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Thunder | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Thunder | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Thunder | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Lakers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Thunder | 52c | 48.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…8211backed Thunder | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Lakers | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Lakers | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Lakers | 37c | 39.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Thunder | 55c | 36.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 45c | 36.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Thunder | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…31c1backed Lakers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Thunder | 53c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.