Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd62667d435f6dc03d73705f979754b9062714fd4b8531757daf29aa19587f99a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.98 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 2,653$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.84 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Under | 65c | 1,371$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 1,228$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.81 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 27c | 1,072$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.56 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Under | 73c | 1,062$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…a3dabacked Over | 23c | 912.54$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03bd…c016backed Under | 77c | 912.54$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Under | 57c | 696.78$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 579.17$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.35 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 37c | 516.93$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.61 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Over | 37c | 399.97$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 296.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.15 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 32c | 260.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 248.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.2 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3339backed Under | 38c | 215.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 181.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 31c | 158.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 65c | 135.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 73c | 134.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf931…516abacked Under | 54c | 131.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Under | 76c | 131.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 56c | 107.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Over | 34c | 97.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 19c | 86.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 82.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 69c | 48.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 31c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +27.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Under | 60c | 26.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Under | 60c | 25.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 73c | 24.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 66c | 21.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +33.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 65c | 15.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 79c | 15.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.