Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1129f46dda2d20f6a201fc6c6da3329ddf1777e9debc5f2ef6094f61378f2370
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Over | 55c | 13,778$7,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,150.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 5,908$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.42 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Over | 46c | 3,261$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 59c | 2,026$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 55c | 1,488$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.63 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Under | 13c | 1,185$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.44 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 46c | 1,057$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.58 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 886.34$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.58 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 872.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.49 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 41c | 843$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.36 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 52c | 765.03$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.03 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 75c | 763.76$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.62 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414c…f10bbacked Over | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Over | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 645.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +188.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…a022backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 48c | 599.72$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 47c | 549.26$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.1 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 47c | 427.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.25 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a35…f88bbacked Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 44c | 329.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.52 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 54c | 305.09$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.75 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 272.71$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.38per pick | 6cpaid | +717.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Under | 40c | 247.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 41c | 235.82$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 40c | 228.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 56c | 199.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 44c | 144$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 43c | 142.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 46c | 130.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 52c | 118.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 40c | 115.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Under | 72c | 115$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 53c | 112.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Over | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 33c | 108.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 55c | 108.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +27.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…3ed7backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 99.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 74c | 88.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 47c | 75.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 49c | 61.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 64c | 60.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 58.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 54c | 57.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 55c | 54.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…a734backed Over | 45c | 52.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.6wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…9715backed Over | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 43c | 45.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 51c | 40.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 58c | 40.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 55c | 36.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 56c | 35.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 58c | 35.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 62c | 30.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 49c | 21.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…2c21backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.