TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$176,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,337 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed No34c12,702$4,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,309.5675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No2c10,599$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.457062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7087…c61fbacked No39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9002441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes62c7,000$4,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,66010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No17c6,860$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.22,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked No40c5,510$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.961650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No38c4,350$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.371,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes62c4,000$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.7933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes77c3,386$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.5928241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes63c3,236$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.8717549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes60c3,169$1,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.669549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17011644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes61c2,975$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.2669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa524…1252backed Yes62c2,482$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed No40c2,090$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.023548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e30…bbfebacked Yes61c2,082$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+97.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed No46c2,014$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.081833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7804252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked No39c1,795$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No19c1,283$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.021,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed No39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+44.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes66c1,243$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.523,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No38c1,200$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4629746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No37c1,200$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.973438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No38c1,166$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.959831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed No40c1,137$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.810154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3906256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes62c900$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34238055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No38c899.99$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34611056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…7adfbacked No38c753.1$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb3…bf2ebacked Yes62c751.87$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+173%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes60c700$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28056547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170e…aa0dbacked Yes59c660.8$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.932860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf56a…fe7cbacked No39c600$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2341250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Yes62c564.52$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.523369.7%23 W · 10 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No39c540.28$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.716053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x70b0…cfbebacked Yes78c512.82$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.82757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No40c508.71$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.485554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.476262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No38c499.99$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No3c454.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes67c395.56$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.671492.9%13 W · 1 L+4.3wins+0.31per pick62cpaid+49%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Yes62c391.94$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.944920.4%10 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No40c353.06$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2219446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.589250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed Yes62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.582185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick70cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No18c316.5$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.229532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4a78…1e03backed Yes62c315.37$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.845100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No39c300$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.516045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Yes60c298.36$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.345848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fe…025cbacked Yes77c296.45$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Yes62c266.13$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Yes60c257$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.85655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec15…86abbacked Yes61c245.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick61cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No13c218.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4540744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No40c218$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.234342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed No35c200.66$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3611931.1%37 W · 82 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked No17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Yes78c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.257550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed No18c198.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.141827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x113f…95a6backed Yes62c182.18$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.232962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes62c177.42$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4234547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0bc…b904backed Yes55c173.16$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.162147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Yes62c170.34$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.733458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.493857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Yes59c168.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.213951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cb…2087backed Yes60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+47.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No38c162.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2912271.3%87 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+28.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.296549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb0f…a7e4backed Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed No37c160$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.211563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No38c155.84$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2237344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No45c155$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.316060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cb0…51d5backed Yes61c146.69$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.21771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No19c144.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0111644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6aa…8882backed No21c143.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.087219.4%14 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a5…a18ebacked Yes62c140$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.33366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No28c130.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbb…a8c2backed No39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf24b…d4cebacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb34…a390backed Yes62c123.93$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.09633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed No37c120$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.49159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8918…f4e4backed No37c115.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432317.4%4 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-51.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5db0…73f1backed Yes62c108.71$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.31450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa383…a2f0backed No43c106$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.589145.1%41 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8978…11b8backed Yes62c103.84$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e8…9e56backed Yes74c103.56$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221650%8 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4156…dcd6backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1421…51d1backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…402abacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459123.1%21 W · 70 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b49…69c1backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4010946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e2…c751backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225770.2%40 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed68…236cbacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57f2…d036backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6625855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.