Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda63fbd4918e71e1e656e3dfd80749166f405224ea9223e2527d0164c8d8e4a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…61d0backed No | 78c | 18,500$14,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,070 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Yes | 22c | 18,451$4,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,059.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 18c | 4,300$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 22c | 3,304$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.77 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 3,256$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…1252backed Yes | 22c | 2,045$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 448.2$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yes | 11c | 417$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…3c1dbacked Yes | 22c | 411.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 78c | 336$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 18c | 298.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 22c | 279.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 265.93$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 23c | 168$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…a18ebacked No | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 9c | 119.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed No | 79c | 112.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…1f38backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…5555backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 81.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 18c | 57.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…01cbbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…6fc0backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 26.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 78c | 20.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.