Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68553efd39c84b4b0f4f131b8a9df32a199801f4d824bb5f83e33871fcc552e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 17c | 10,802$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,886.45 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Yes | 18c | 3,701$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +429.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 17c | 3,258$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.36 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 17c | 1,896$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.4 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 13c | 715.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 17c | 553.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 454.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 18c | 376.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…3c1dbacked Yes | 18c | 363.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Yes | 8c | 339.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 17c | 245$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 17c | 142.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 26c | 115.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +444.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…a3c3backed Yes | 17c | 94.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Yes | 17c | 70.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 17c | 69.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…b461backed Yes | 17c | 62.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-24?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.