TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Heat

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Warriors, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,112,039
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,155,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,112,039 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,489 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8605…750fbacked Warriors34c230,745$77,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,3902657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors29c69,772$20,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,222.62,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Heat65c64,724$42,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,375.0470147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Heat76c62,955$47,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,087.147946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0140…9028backed Warriors26c61,474$15,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,924.24544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Warriors21c60,056$12,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,896.7520253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb90c…9a6abacked Warriors34c57,000$19,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,3803234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Heat79c55,555$43,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,666.557640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Warriors22c55,167$12,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,136.765433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Heat69c55,072$37,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,178.951,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf5…2fefbacked Warriors0c52,242$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.79812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-76.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Warriors23c52,216$11,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,897.1472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Heat74c47,932$35,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,260.8269852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Heat78c43,510$33,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,572.287946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Heat77c40,000$30,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,011.9359653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Heat72c32,900$23,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,241.081,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat78c29,250$22,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,434.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Warriors22c28,000$6,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1608840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors23c26,840$6,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,055.625,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Heat79c25,046$19,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,210.1826637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Warriors23c25,000$5,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7508939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Heat68c25,000$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Warriors32c23,415$7,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,526.672,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Heat66c22,676$14,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,810.3147751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Heat78c21,119$16,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,746.2311558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Warriors12c20,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40034645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Warriors19c20,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80022457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed Heat67c18,614$12,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,217.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf963…0637backed Heat75c18,005$13,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,501.654742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Heat79c17,000$13,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,61044337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors25c16,554$4,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,124.261,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Warriors22c16,370$3,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,550.8185742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Warriors30c16,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors19c15,221$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,828.424,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Warriors34c14,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Warriors21c14,209$2,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,983.871,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Warriors32c13,332$4,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,218.565925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Heat79c12,658$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.231369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Heat79c12,658$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.2334062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Warriors24c12,500$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.9778445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Warriors6c12,286$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.1281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Heat67c12,260$8,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,045.86352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Warriors0c12,019$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.718820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Heat68c12,000$8,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,818.7511547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Warriors22c11,989$2,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,637.5725138.6%97 W · 154 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Warriors3c10,077$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.3152460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88d5…5ae1backed Warriors1c10,052$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.52944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+572.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Warriors22c9,941$2,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,157.8226038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Heat78c9,831$7,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.827468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat69c9,495$6,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.729,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Heat75c8,988$6,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,254.0247856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf65…127cbacked Warriors10c8,650$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.02714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-71%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Warriors29c8,483$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.549640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Heat66c8,026$5,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,728.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e94…9baebacked Heat67c8,000$5,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.996100%6 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+97.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x09c4…40cdbacked Warriors33c7,840$2,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,587.094621.7%10 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors24c7,341$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.352,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Warriors23c7,300$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6791,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Heat67c7,277$4,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,406.257338.4%28 W · 45 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Warriors18c7,258$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.261,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Heat75c7,178$5,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.330157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Warriors16c6,810$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.251650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Warriors22c6,500$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.3218047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Warriors20c6,187$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2512,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Warriors27c5,995$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.646659.1%39 W · 27 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Heat67c5,970$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.111741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Warriors19c5,881$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.5685344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ee…05a7backed Heat65c5,847$3,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,074.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdefe…bdb8backed Warriors32c5,733$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.824725.5%12 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Heat65c5,603$3,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.9395049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Warriors33c5,419$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.8124330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Heat69c5,397$3,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.344459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Heat80c5,130$4,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0267957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc142…feefbacked Heat78c5,128$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.21757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fc…bfadbacked Warriors10c5,052$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Warriors29c4,947$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.544648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Heat68c4,901$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.4718452.7%97 W · 87 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Heat79c4,753$3,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.1637557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Heat77c4,684$3,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.8716446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Warriors12c4,604$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.452,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Warriors22c4,545$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat79c4,470$3,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.518,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Warriors7c4,467$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.961,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Heat76c4,289$3,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.8848046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b4…36f0backed Warriors24c4,200$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+87%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Heat67c4,097$2,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.953951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Warriors22c4,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Heat78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Warriors25c3,900$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.3133743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Warriors29c3,838$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.8627917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Heat79c3,731$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.581963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Heat73c3,548$2,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.461,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb149…18c5backed Heat67c3,547$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.521163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Warriors32c3,500$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12028850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6327…e181backed Warriors29c3,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+34.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Warriors22c3,333$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.152835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Heat77c3,283$2,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.119351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Heat79c3,165$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.562466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Heat77c3,115$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.858951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Heat71c3,102$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.2748347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.