NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc3c9b694fbce8ae4827affaf2bac454c936f40d97d41c4751f3317ae791d5dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Over | 52c | 7,676$3,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,991.71 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,564$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,924.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 2,520$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Over | 52c | 1,636$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 47c | 1,323$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.43 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,168$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.48 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 47c | 1,143$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.79 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 1,050$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.5 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 54c | 949.99$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 48c | 833$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.16 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 729$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.08 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 443.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Under | 46c | 402.17$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.17 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 330$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 312$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 300$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 169$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 45c | 160$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 51c | 145.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Over | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 46c | 81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Over | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Over | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Over | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Warriors vs. HeatHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.