NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb81039b4d0662e8d9235a6dae97f0f1780cf2a9e7501f23d97fdb62db9b2833c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 3,161$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 1,132$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.27 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 44c | 1,127$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.18 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e2…9b0cbacked Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3f…bb7cbacked Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 951.81$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 948.44$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 45c | 712$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.6 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Under | 47c | 518.25$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.67 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…aa7dbacked Under | 47c | 476$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 42c | 332.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.12 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 39c | 323.36$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.25 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 58c | 295$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7470…dfedbacked Over | 54c | 277$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 58c | 264$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 40c | 210$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c72…8b8bbacked Over | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…512dbacked Over | 54c | 199$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 52c | 197.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 48c | 177$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 169$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Over | 51c | 113.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 57c | 113.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 58c | 112$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…5813backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 40c | 99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Over | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Over | 51c | 72.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 56c | 71.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 59c | 69.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 55c | 54.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…af8bbacked Over | 55c | 53.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…fd98backed Under | 46c | 51.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Under | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 59c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…8abbbacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…0f43backed Under | 47c | 48.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d94…04d0backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Over | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 245 | 66.9%164 W · 81 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…44febacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f98…1fe3backed Under | 46c | 39.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…74ebbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaecc…eb20backed Over | 61c | 27.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…2d7ebacked Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Over | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Over | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Warriors vs. HeatHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.