NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aa859be3431de4f7d39861e599269deb9e4eff11a218d376b18cd29d3ad2858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Heat | 54c | 1,953$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.55 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 52c | 1,768$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 40c | 1,374$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 46c | 1,263$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.35 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat | 50c | 1,188$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 45c | 1,173$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.91 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Heat | 60c | 1,027$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.94 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a9…37babacked Heat | 51c | 977.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.36 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Warriors | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Warriors | 52c | 645$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.74 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Heat | 57c | 529$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.52 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Heat | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Warriors | 51c | 443.87$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.46 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Heat | 49c | 409.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.99 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Warriors | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Warriors | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…f661backed Heat | 52c | 382$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.2 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Heat | 63c | 303.86$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Warriors | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 48c | 240.94$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…b283backed Heat | 60c | 203.47$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Heat | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Warriors | 52c | 197$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Warriors | 51c | 182.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Warriors | 48c | 175$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Warriors | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Warriors | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 36c | 139.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Warriors | 39c | 128.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…e403backed Heat | 65c | 128.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Warriors | 46c | 107$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…c9c8backed Warriors | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Warriors | 40c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…93ccbacked Warriors | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 51c | 86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Heat | 54c | 83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Warriors | 37c | 80.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Warriors | 52c | 78.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Warriors | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Warriors | 33c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Heat | 69c | 72.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Heat | 48c | 71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Heat | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Heat | 57c | 67.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Heat | 67c | 60.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Heat | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Heat | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Warriors | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 57c | 55.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Heat | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5962backed Warriors | 38c | 51.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Heat | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Warriors | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Warriors | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Heat | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Warriors | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Warriors | 50c | 47.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 50c | 44.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Heat | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Heat | 58c | 42.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Heat | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Heat | 48c | 39.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Warriors | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Warriors | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Warriors | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Heat | 64c | 31.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…7a09backed Warriors | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Warriors | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Heat | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Heat | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Warriors | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…e5cabacked Warriors | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Warriors vs. HeatHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.