NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ade1e930d3f6e6ebcf814d4bf6552ae8875ca22d48fae29bf34f6a6496ee504
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 54c | 1,107$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 44c | 898.85$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.4 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Heat | 54c | 714.99$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.9 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 46c | 610.29$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.33 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Warriors | 46c | 551$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.46 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…0c9abacked Warriors | 46c | 476$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Heat | 57c | 457.51$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 44c | 440$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Warriors | 43c | 295$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.85 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Heat | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 42c | 208$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Warriors | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Heat | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…b24cbacked Heat | 55c | 177$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…ceaebacked Heat | 55c | 156$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…41a4backed Heat | 55c | 143$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Warriors | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Warriors | 47c | 113$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Warriors | 35c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Heat | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Heat | 53c | 87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Heat | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 44c | 78.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Heat | 65c | 76.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Warriors | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Warriors | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Warriors | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 46c | 49.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…7bb9backed Warriors | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…a51cbacked Heat | 57c | 40.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Heat | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Warriors | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Heat | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Heat | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Heat | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Heat | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Warriors vs. HeatHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Warriors vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.